Despite evidence that the current U.S. strategy has been working, many Democrats still stake their careers on the idea that Iraq is an unwinnable war, and that most Iraqi’s do not want us there. They complain that the war is draining us of resources that could be used for other purposes. Though I can concede the third with some reservations, somehow, I doubt that either of the other two suppositions are true. So here is an alternative strategy.

I suggest that the U.S. government say to the Iraqi government that we need a definitive answer from the Iraqi people as to whether they want us to stay and for how long. We should ask their government to hold a referendum no later than October 1, 2008 with final results openly published by October 15, 2008. We can even suggest a format for the referendum. For example the referendum might say:

U.S. Forces should:

1. Leave Iraq now as quickly as possible
2. Leave within a specified time period that is greater than option one but less than option three.
3. Stay in Iraq until Iraqi forces are fully capable of defending their country and then leave
4. Stay in Iraq as long as it takes to create a stable military, social, and economic environment and then leave.
5. Stay in Iraq for an extended period of time; we like their presence here and want establish long-term security agreements with them for our future safety against foreign aggressors.

They could be given the option of having a runoff election. If no option wins a clear majority then the two most frequently chosen options would be put on a second ballot with one clear winner.

We should be open with Iraqi citizens. They should know that we  are interested in their welfare AND our own security, but that we will honor the results of a fair and open referendum on their part.

1. There could be difficulties with any form of immigration from Iraq to the U.S. 
2. There could reduced business and commercial ties
3. There would be no more financial aid what-so-ever.
4. That should we determine that terrorists of any sort begin using that country as a base of operations that they would be liable to attack again and / or financial isolation.
5. That should we determine that Iraq is providing a base for terrorist activities that we would take no responsibility for the end results. In other word that they will be responsible for cleaning up the mess left over after we dispose with the terrorists.

Those are the central aspects of the idea. What it does for us is answer the question "Do Iraqis really want us there and if so for how long?"  This has been one of the primary debates over power in Washington and the answer could easily effect the outcome of our election and control of Congress. It lets the Iraqis know that they do have the power to ask us to leave at any time, but that they also have attending responsibilities for their decisions. 

If we are asked to stay it puts us in a strong position with the rest of the world concerning our foreign policy judgments over the past 7 years.  It would likely mean that we would have an easier time seeking additional foreign help in Iraq and perhaps elsewhere.  On the other hand, if we are asked to leave then it tells us that we may be fighting a lost cause and that we need to take other measures to protect ourselves and use our resources in other ways. It either confirms or refutes the ideas of the past seven years.

It may also be a split decision. If one or more provinces vote one way, while the other provinces vote strongly another way. That tells us something else. It may say that Iraq as now constituted is not a consolidated country at all that perhaps it should be broken down into constituent regions. That gives us negotiating power for yet another solution.

I can understand that their will people on both sides that will not like this idea. For one thing, it could threaten their world view.  They want what they want and they don’t want anybody else telling them how we should act. But on the other hand it could be a fine example of democracy in action. It is also a test of whether or not we have been able to transmit some of our values to common Iraqis.  So it is something to think about. My own guess is that we would be asked to stay… I am not sure for how long, but I have confidence that we have done enough already to win the hearts and minds of most Iraqi’s.